There are a lot of ways to define the housing market, but the simplest metric estate agents use when deciding on the best course of action for homeowners and homebuyers alike is whether it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.
These are not terms exclusive to the housing market, but it is a useful idea to give a rough idea of whether it is worth buying now or waiting for the market conditions to change.
For the last decade, it has very much been a seller’s market, where a relative lack of options available to buyers has meant that the value of houses and the land they are built on has increased exponentially, reaching peak after peak in the early 2020s.
This has been very good for sellers who have seen the sell-on value and equity of their houses increase considerably, which has benefits not only for homeowners looking to sell (especially if they plan on downsizing) but also for those looking to refinance.
On the other hand, it has been less than ideal for buyers, who lack the leverage that allows them to get the best deal possible. As we have seen from 2020 until 2022, this can lead to prices increasing exponentially, squeezing some potential buyers out of the market.
Whilst most acutely felt in the 2020s, this has been the trend to some degree for the last decade, but much of the evidence suggests that this might be set to change.
The best antidote to a seller’s market is an increase in supply, and aside from plans to build 1.5m affordable homes in the next five years, more homes, in general, are available, and there is a belief that bank rates (and by extension mortgage rates) may be falling in the near future.
This has created a dip this year that has started earlier than the typical winter slowdown but also appears to set the stage for a particularly animated 2025 for the market.